Welcome Back...and Already The Polls Are Coming...

First of all, to all fellow students reading this, welcome back. However, if you thought you were going to have a few months off to catch your breath and watch the new Congress work its wonders (last night was the best of all - student loan rates slashed in half to 3.4%), you were mistaken. The presidential races are already starting, and Zogby and all those other pollsters are hard at work. In fact, check out this New York Times article for details about Nevada's Democratic candidate forum this Feb. 23 and then New Hampshire's debates (carried on CNN) on April 4 and 5

So what do Iowa and New Hampshire look like initially? Well, not too great if you're Hillary Clinton. After all, she's supposed to be the frontrunner, right? Which would mean she should be leading in at least one of the two, right? Not so.

Here's Zogby telephone polls for Iowa and New Hampshire. Quick summary on the Democratic side: Edwards leads Iowa with 27%, followed by Obama at 17% and Hillary and Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack at 16%. In New Hampshire, Obama leads with 23%, with Edwards and Clinton at 19%, and no one else within striking distance.

Those who have been following the numbers for a while actually won't be surprised at Iowa: Edwards has been building his organization there continuously since he announced for 2004. He has a bunch of connections among the caucus voters, and led a fair number of polls in Iowa during 2006. But what would give me pause if I were Clinton is that Obamamania appears to be hanging on in New Hampshire. His visit to the state several months back drew many many more people than normally seen this far ahead, but it's clear that was no book tour/media frenzy creation. Looks like the supposed frontrunner has to come from behind in two states. Furthermore, her statement against escalation this week looked pale next to the Edwards campaign description of escalation as "total bull."

Finally, I'd bet that Obama's drawing out his announcement not only to keep the media writing, but also to make sure that his polls numbers have legs that last. I don't think he would want to enter a race where he wasn't in control of at least one of the states. After all, he's already had his media frenzy. If other polls continue to confirm his strength, newspapers can already start printing their Feb. 11 headlines "Obama Announces Campaign For President."