The Global Primary

Living abroad sucks when it means having to watch Fox News at 4am to get the results from Iowa or New Hampshire, however, this was all before I realized that the DNC has been organizing a global primary....

In the grand old scheme of nomination getting, you need a bit over 2000 delegates to be the nominee (2025 to be exact). States like Iowa have, from what I can see 46, delegates at stake which get divided between the candidates (Obama got 16, Hillary and Edwards each received 15 from that state). New Hampshire has 22, Nevada has 25, Delaware has 15, South Carolina has 45, California has 370, Arkansas has 35... (You can Google the rest...) To add to the confusion of the system there are 842 "super-delegates" thrown into the mix which are the members of congress, and DNC folks who are "un-pledged and free to support the candidate of their choice".

This year, however, the DNC decided to add a "state" into the primary and on February 5th, there will be a 23rd state voting: Democrats Abroad. In 40 cities over the world there will be "voting centers" set up to allow US citizens to come cast their ballot into the international system and register to vote to get ready for the 2008 election. This "Global Primary" will take a week with mail in ballots, online voting, and faxed ballots being accepted until Feb. 12th when the 22 delegates which the international-ites have been given will be divided up by candidate.

What's even stranger as I move into working with an incredible group of people as they coordinate this monumental effort is how the candidates start to break down when there is no campaigning which is going on globally. Without the influence of constant TV ads, or the candidates flying in, voters are left to look at candidate websites, read their platforms and plans, and the news (the British news specifically is obsessed with our race.... granted, they think that Mike Gravel is the most human candidate and there was actually a sidebar in an article wondering why fewer people are voting for such a personable fellow.)

Finally, not that I need to point out the disdain the Republican party has for the rest of the world, but the RNC made a conscious choice NOT to set up a global primary and allow voters who are abroad to vote as a block but threw them into the system of securing a primary ballot abroad (trust me, something that you will never receive no matter how early you register or how many times you call your election board.)

The tens of thousands of votes which come from abroad DO count, as we learned in 2000 (as long as they actually are counted) however, this represents more than just the pure number of votes, this represents a difference between party priorities and an incredible difference in the level of engagement with the world. International voters are naturally focussed on different issues but have a unique perspective on how the US is perceived outside of our rather un-secured borders. The Global Primary won't be responsible for pushing one candidate or another over the edge, but it will certainly have made a difference to the citizens who live abroad and their friends who have no formal voice in the election for the position which shapes world policies.

English Only for Giuliani

Glad to know the former mayor of our polyglot city (40 languages and counting!) is a proud patron of Philly's best-loved, English-only cheesesteak establishment.

Flip. Flop.

Media Matters: Expectations Game Edition

Over the past two fundraising quarters, the Obama campaign has far outpaced the Clinton campaign in fudraising, despite its lower stature in national polls. The Obama campaign has been using this fact as a means to downplay Clinton's frontrunner status, arguing that the campaign's fiscal health would allow it to compete on Tsunami Tuesday (when most primary races will occur) on a level unattainable for Clinton.

Last week, it seemed like the Obama campaign would get to keep making this argument. That's before the Clinton campaign successfully managed a textbook execution of the expectations game. For over a week now, the Clinton campaign has been insisting that it would raise between $17-$20 billion during this fundraising quarter. When the Obama campaign announced that it raised $20 billion this quarter, Clinton's spokespeople claimed the best they could hope for would be that the two campaigns would draw even for the quarter.

Then, SURPRISE! Clinton raised $27 billion ($22 billion for the primary). Now the campaign has achieved something even better than a cash advantage for this quarter: process stories. Instead of talking about the intricacies of policy, the press will write stories all week about how Clinton exceeded expectations, outraised Obama for the first time, and has solidified her lead as the frontrunner. Obama will have significant difficulties stealing the spotlight during this week.

These are two very media savvy campaigns, but Clinton 's campaign won this match. Keep your eyes pealed for more expectation game follies. If you notice this or other media strategies employed by campaigns that you think are effective, post it on the blog, and let's discuss it.

~Jonathan

The Obama Surge?

In 2003, John Kerry began slowly surging in various Iowa field polls in mid-october. By early December the once formidable lead build by the Dean camp had dwindled to five points, according to a pew survey. Could we be witnessing the same trend?

One poll does not a momentum shift make... still, this may the good news the Obama campaign has been desperately seeking.

Obama Raises $25M

Senator Obama has raised an impressive $25 million for his campaign so far, putting him just behind Senator Clinton, who has thus far raised $26 million. Obama will be able to spend $23.5 million of that money on the primary race.

What is most impressive about this story is not just how much money Obama has raised; it is the fact that this money came from 100,000 different donors.

Senator McCain: "..."

A question about the effectiveness of condoms in preventing the spread of H.I.V. stumped Senator McCain, leading to a rather awkward and revealing moment in McCain's '08 campaign.

Senator McCain, this is not a matter of opinion. This is science. The use of condoms dramatically reduces the risk of contracting sexually transmitted diseases and infections, including H.I.V. Please stop this ridiculous pandering to the socially conservative right.

McCain To Seek Presidency

Tune into Letterman tonight to see Senator John McCain (R-AZ) announce his candidacy in the 2008 race.

Oops for Biden

Senator Joe Biden announced yesterday that he would run for President...and that's when his campaign started to go downhill. Biden made some very controversial remarks about Senators Obama, Clinton and Edwards. Way to start the campaign off right, Joe.

And so it begins...

The '08 smear campaign has begun - but not by the candidates themselves. The conservative website Insight has posted a report alleging that Senator Clinton's team is preparing to attack Senator Obama's Muslim background, claiming that he spent time in a Muslim seminary in Indonesia as a child. Just one problem...the New York Times reported on Monday that neither the news of the future attack nor the allegation itself is true. Insight's article names no sources and does not even name the reporter. Hmm...anonymous articles with unidentified sources. We can only imagine what else will follow between now and the election.

Kerry's Out

Kerry used the floor of the Senate today to announce to no one's surprise that he won't be running for the nomination. So ends a sad chapter in Democratic history...but here's to the next one.

The Most Diverse Field Ever

Bill Richardson has just thrown his hat into the ring for the 2008 race.

Boy, with the addition of Richardson it looks we dems have the most diverse and representative field of presidential candidates ever assembled.

The Republicans? They've got Sam Brownback.

She's officially thinking about it.

The speculation can stop--Hillary is officially thinking about running for president. This primary is already shaping up to be spectacular as the NYTimes points out that this is the EARLIEST start for presidential campaigns in history. Hillary knows what she's up against, too. While remaining modest in her soundbytes by claiming that she doesn't see herself as the front runner thus far, her office is wasting no time putting out the stats. Her office boasts the results of a Washington Times-ABC News poll which puts her at 41% lead. Obama got a measely 17%.

Here are the rest of the poll results:

Clinton- 41%
Obama 17%
Edwards 11%
Gore 10%
Kerry 8%
All others <3%

And on the flip side...
Guiliani 34%
McCain 27%
Romney 9%
Gingrich 9%
Brownback 1%


And so it begins...

Welcome Back...and Already The Polls Are Coming...

First of all, to all fellow students reading this, welcome back. However, if you thought you were going to have a few months off to catch your breath and watch the new Congress work its wonders (last night was the best of all - student loan rates slashed in half to 3.4%), you were mistaken. The presidential races are already starting, and Zogby and all those other pollsters are hard at work. In fact, check out this New York Times article for details about Nevada's Democratic candidate forum this Feb. 23 and then New Hampshire's debates (carried on CNN) on April 4 and 5

So what do Iowa and New Hampshire look like initially? Well, not too great if you're Hillary Clinton. After all, she's supposed to be the frontrunner, right? Which would mean she should be leading in at least one of the two, right? Not so.

Here's Zogby telephone polls for Iowa and New Hampshire. Quick summary on the Democratic side: Edwards leads Iowa with 27%, followed by Obama at 17% and Hillary and Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack at 16%. In New Hampshire, Obama leads with 23%, with Edwards and Clinton at 19%, and no one else within striking distance.

Those who have been following the numbers for a while actually won't be surprised at Iowa: Edwards has been building his organization there continuously since he announced for 2004. He has a bunch of connections among the caucus voters, and led a fair number of polls in Iowa during 2006. But what would give me pause if I were Clinton is that Obamamania appears to be hanging on in New Hampshire. His visit to the state several months back drew many many more people than normally seen this far ahead, but it's clear that was no book tour/media frenzy creation. Looks like the supposed frontrunner has to come from behind in two states. Furthermore, her statement against escalation this week looked pale next to the Edwards campaign description of escalation as "total bull."

Finally, I'd bet that Obama's drawing out his announcement not only to keep the media writing, but also to make sure that his polls numbers have legs that last. I don't think he would want to enter a race where he wasn't in control of at least one of the states. After all, he's already had his media frenzy. If other polls continue to confirm his strength, newspapers can already start printing their Feb. 11 headlines "Obama Announces Campaign For President."